Frey and Osborne’s (2017) “The Future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?” provided a critical analysis of how common jobs were vulnerable due to rapid advances in technology. The authors described the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI), automation, robotics, and advanced sensors to transform the work landscape across multiple disciplines. Their research showed that up to 47 percent of U.S. employment was at risk of being automated within one or two decades. In addition to the technological shifts, 2030 marks the retirement peak for baby boomers (Mishel et al., 1999).

Those immersed in preparing for workforce changes knew that immense work would need to be done to prepare our society and institutions for the future state within two decades. Then, COVID-19 hit and accelerated many previous projections. The pandemic forced a digital transformation on a global scale.

Current Environment

Today, higher education institutions face a convergence of challenges, including the enrollment cliff (Bauman, 2024), technological advances, changing public perceptions of the value of college degrees, and financial difficulties. This confluence of issues is prompting many institutions to reevaluate their missions, strategies, methods, and operations. However, some community colleges still adhere to procedures similar to those in place at their founding, while the world around them has undergone significant changes. Many community colleges were established during a period of rapid growth, with one opening per week between 1965 and 1972 (Geiger, 2011). Today, we are seeing a vastly different trend. According to an article in The Hechinger Report (Marcus, 2024), “about one university or college per week . . . , on average, has announced that it will close or merge (para. 9).

Acceleration Gap

Higher education faculty, staff, and administrators are operating in an environment increasingly characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) (Bennis & Nanus, 1985). Technology adoption cycles have been compressed from decades to months, yet colleges are predominantly operating on five-year strategic plans. Institutions that adhere to accreditation and state approval processes typically take 18 months to three years to develop new curriculum, while labor market analyses show that the half-life for skills has decreased from 10 years to less than five years for general skills and two and a half years for technical skills (Skillable, n.d.; Goel & Kovács-Ondrejkovic, 2023). The cascading result is that students pay the price when they earn a degree or certificate in a career field that has been eliminated by automation. Many community college students juggle jobs, families, and other responsibilities, which means completing an associate degree may take five to six years. With so much time and effort invested, students cannot afford to pursue a degree that will not hold value in the job market.

Leadership Blind Spot and Community Abandonment

Formal training and professional development have traditionally prepared many community college administrators for stability. However, the current VUCA environment demands a different skill set, one rooted in frameworks that anticipate change. The absence of a future-focused mindset and the necessary skills can create a blind spot for leaders who adhere to traditional frameworks. With the best intentions, they can invest millions in equipment and curricula that become outdated before the first cohort completes related programming. A lack of alignment with the industry is also highly frustrating for industry partners who need graduates with relevant, job-ready skills. They expect colleges to be able to pivot quickly to prepare students for the workforce.

Community colleges can be anchors for local workforce development efforts. However, without agile planning, the efforts can become reactive rather than proactive or even predictive. Reactive responses have significant implications for working-class students, who bear the heaviest burden of mismatched skills in the labor market. In extreme situations, it can lead to a local brain drain as students are forced to leave their communities because their college failed to anticipate and prepare for emerging opportunities.

The Community College DNA Advantage

Community colleges were established with a mission to be responsive to the needs of their communities. Community is not just part of their name; it is an integral part of their DNA. As a result, community colleges are designed for responsiveness and local adaptation. Many communities established community colleges with workforce development as part of their charge. Each college has existing relationships with employers that enable feedback loops for future-sensing. The student demographics at community colleges include adult learners and career changers (and/or career switchers), who embody the future of upskilling/reskilling, continuous learning, and adaptation.

Emerging Success Stories

The dawn of a future-sensing era in higher education is emerging. By 2027, 70 percent of major universities are expected to adopt AI-enhanced strategic planning (The Strategy Institute, 2024). Several community colleges have already launched programs for the future: Miami Dade College, MiraCosta College, Cuyahoga Community College (Tri-C), and ACC. ACC, Miami Dade, MiraCosta, and Tri-C have all launched future-focused programs: Miami Dade has built strong industry partnerships and developed essential programs for students (McNaughton, 2024); MiraCosta has provided training for faculty, staff, and administrators; Tri-C established the Center for the Future of Work (Cuyahoga Community College, n.d.); and ACC appointed its first futurist in May 2025, demonstrating a commitment to being a forward-thinking, future-focused institution.

Russell Lowery-Hart, ACC’s Chancellor, is committed to operational excellence, and had the vision to invest in a dedicated futurist position to support this aim. A futurist is a professional who systematically explores possibilities, identifies emerging patterns, and models potential futures to inform decision-making (Figure 1). A futurist’s role is not to predict the future, but to ensure that the college is prepared for it. To create a scaffold for success, the chancellor crafted a formal job description for a cabinet role that incorporates scenario planning, strategic foresight, trend analysis, and network and coalition building. Necessary competencies include systems thinking, scenario planning, change management, data analysis, stakeholder engagement, adaptability, and strategic communication. The futurist guides the college in future-focused strategic planning. An example of this at ACC is the launch of Transform_ED. MiraCosta College President Sunita Cooke emphasized the importance of a future-oriented mindset, stating, "Without future-focused thinking, we remain one step behind, always in crisis mode" (Pierce & Wisely, 2025).

The Network Effect Opportunity

To understand the collective benefits of a future-sensing community of practice, one could apply the concept of the network effect. To better understand the concept, imagine that in 1985, Pierre Omidyar and Jeff Skoll launched a small, clumsy Internet platform called eBay with only a few dozen users. The platform became helpful for the participants only after it had reached a critical mass of users. Why? Because as each person joins the community, they bring value, and a special magic begins to take hold. This phenomenon is known as the network effect: The more people who use a system or adopt a behavior, the more useful it becomes for everyone.

Futurism and foresight operate similarly. Now, imagine a community college where faculty, student affairs professionals, deans, and staff all begin using strategic foresight tools, such as scenario planning, labor market simulations, and pre-mortems. The more users, the more shared intelligence. The collective intelligence increases. The symbiosis is how the network effect transforms environments. The leaders create a culture that supports exploration and foster a culture that rewards and incentivizes an authentic learning culture, where people are not afraid of punitive consequences when they take strategic risks. John Maxwell (2000) encouraged leaders to practice courage when he admonished, “Fail early, fail often, but always fail forward.” Maxwell was advocating for leaders to leverage mistakes as stepping-stones to success. Creating this type of culture, where people are willing to take calculated risks, makes our colleges smarter, and this, in turn, creates additional benefits for every subsequent person who joins the movement.

ACC recently launched the Alliance of Future Makers (AFM). The AFM is a community of practice for early adopters who are co-creating the future. We aim to build a shared global network for future-focused professionals. Our collective professional development and pooled expertise offer several benefits for smaller institutions. An additional advantage is the connection to industry partners eager to collaborate with innovative colleges and scale their efforts. Ultimately, the colleges in the alliance will act as catalysts for community resilience, innovation, and sustainability.

Why Now?

With the demographic cliff, competition is increasing, not just among colleges, but also from external players who see workforce development as a ripe area for transformation (Schroeder, 2024). There is a growing emphasis on workforce innovation at both the federal and state levels. We are at the precipice of more disruptive change. Leaders who embrace this moment and adopt a future-focused paradigm are the ones who will be most competitive.

As colleges seek to remain competitive in a VUCA society, it is becoming increasingly necessary for leaders to possess the relevant skills, competencies, and frameworks to prepare for the many unknowns. The VUCA environment can overwhelm busy college leaders, causing them to be consumed by the urgent issues that arise and leaving them with no plan for thriving in the future. Ultimately, the college will either inherit the future that someone else creates or co-create its own future. The future belongs to those colleges that choose to craft their destiny.

References

Bauman, D. (2024, February 7). Colleges were already bracing for an enrollment cliff. Now there might be a second one. The Chronicle of Higher Education.

Bennis, W. G., & Nanus, B. (1985). Leaders: The strategies for taking charge. Harper & Row.

Goel, S., & Kovács-Ondrejkovic, O. (2023). Reskilling for a rapidly changing world. Boston Consulting Group. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/reskilling-workforce-for-future

Cuyahoga Community College. (n.d.). Center for the future of work. https://www.tri-c.edu/workforce/center-for-the-future-of-work.html

Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.

Geiger, R. L. (2011). The ten generations of American higher education. In P. G. Altbach, P. J. Gumport, & R. O. Berdahl (Eds.), American higher education in the twenty-first century: Social, political, and economic challenges (3rd ed., pp. 37-68). Johns Hopkins University Press.

Marcus, J. (2024, April 11). Colleges are now closing at a pace of one a week. What happens to the students? The Hechinger Report. https://hechingerreport.org/colleges-are-now-closing-at-a-pace-of-one-a-week-what-happens-to-the-students

Maxwell, J. C. (2000). Failing forward: Turning mistakes into stepping stones for success. Thomas Nelson.

McNaughton, D. (2024, March 19). Employability and future-proofing graduates: Pathways to success at MDC [Audio podcast episode]. In Changing Higher Ed. The Change Leader, Inc. https://changinghighered.com/employability-and-future-proofing-graduates

Mishel, L., Bernstein, J., & Schmitt, J. (1999). The state of working America 1998-99. Economic Policy Institute.

Pierce, D., & Wisely, A. (2025, June/July). Looking forward. CC Journal. https://www.ccjournal-digital.com/ccjournal/june_july_2025/MobilePagedArticle.action?articleId=2066356#articleId2066356

Schroeder, R. (2024, November 20). Winds of change in higher ed to become a hurricane in 2025. Inside Higher Ed. https://www.insidehighered.com/opinion/columns/online-trending-now/2024/11/20/winds-change-higher-ed-become-hurricane-2025

Skillable. (n.d.). The half-life of skills is shortening: This is what it means and how you can overcome it. https://www.skillable.com/resources/hands-on-learning/half-life-of-skills-is-shortening

The Strategy Institute. (2024, December 6). The role of AI in transforming strategic planning processes. https://www.thestrategyinstitute.org/insights/the-role-of-ai-in-transforming-strategic-planning-processes

Monique Reeves is Executive Vice Chancellor for the Future at Austin Community College District in Austin, Texas.

Opinions expressed in Innovation Showcase are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the League for Innovation in the Community College.